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BC Election Update: Conservatives Lead in Polling Ahead of Leaders’ Debate

October 15, 2026

Week Three – 10 days until Election Day

Executive Summary

October 14 – The Conservatives have pulled ahead in polling as David Eby’s approval declines, but a sizable undecided electorate leaves the race unsettled ahead of the campaign’s sole leadership debate. Controversies over Eby’s childcare and the Conservatives’ ICBC plans have sharpened competing claims on affordability and trust. Health care remains a central battleground, with both parties announcing commitments targeted at key voter groups. Tonight’s debate and the forthcoming Conservative platform will be key tests as the campaign enters its final stretch.

Campaign Headlines

Conservatives Pull Ahead, Large Number Remain Uncommitted

Conservative edge: Polling over the past week has shown a consistent Conservative advantage over the NDP, alongside a significant decline in David Eby’s approval rating. However, the race remains unsettled with this week’s Research Co. poll finding that approximately 19 percent of voters are still undecided.

Polls from the past week

Source NDP CPBC
Liaison Strategies 37 percent (-2) 43 percent (+3)
Ipsos 38 percent (-1) 43 percent (+2)
Research Co. (decided voters) 42 percent (-2) 44 percent (+4)
    • Eby’s approval declines: Most polls now place Eby’s approval rating between 34 and 38 percent. While polling has not identified a single reason for the decline, his flurry of announcements the preceding week failed to resonate as the public broadly questioned why the NDP is only now introducing these measures. Recent revelations concerning his children’s daycare, which were not captured in these polls, could further weaken his standing. Despite this decline, Eby remains the leading choice for “Best Premier,” with 36 percent support, ahead of Lorne Doerkson at 25 percent.
    • Green support shifts: According to Research Co., the BC Greens are retaining just 51 percent of their voters from the 2024 election. The NDP has attracted the largest share of former Green voters at 25 percent, followed by the Conservatives at 12 percent and CentreBC at 10 percent.
    • Turnout remains critical: The NDP continues to hold a sizable advantage among voters aged 65 and older, leading the Conservatives 52 percent to 41 percent. The Conservatives lead among all younger age groups. Their ability to translate that support into turnout – historically a challenge among younger voters in BC – will be a key factor in determining whether they can form government.
    • NDP refreshes narrative, again: With Trump failing to resonate with voters as a justification for the snap election, the BC NDP has struggled to establish a compelling campaign narrative. Following backlash over its early focus on Trump, the party pivoted to a series of policy announcements. These were met with public frustration and skepticism, with voters questioning why the NDP was only now taking action. The party has since shifted course again, releasing an action plan that largely restates previous initiatives.
  • Top issues in the election: Yesterday’s Ipsos poll included a full list of issues that British Columbians would most like to see provincial leaders address. The list included the following:
  • Top Issues: cost of living/inflation (57 percent), health care (39 percent), and housing affordability and availability (30 percent). 
  • Secondary issues: Jobs and the economy (22 percent), crime and public safety (20 percent), US trade and tariff issues (13 percent), and government deficits and debt (13 percent). 
  • Tertiary issues: Land use, property rights and DRIPA (8 percent), education (5 percent), and reconciliation with indigenous peoples (3 percent)

Campaign’s Sole Leadership Debate Tonight at 6:15 PM (PT)

Late last week, it was announced that the campaign’s only leadership debate will take place on October 14, featuring the leaders of the NDP, Conservatives, and Greens. CentreBC and OneBC will not participate. The debate will be televised three days before the municipal election.

The lineup could create opportunities for both the Conservatives and Greens. As the only right-of-centre party represented, the Conservatives could attract CentreBC and OneBC voters by presenting themselves as the only viable option to defeat the NDP. For Eby, the debate presents a risk in that the NDP has attracted a substantial share of former Green voters, and Emily Lowan will have an opportunity to win back some of that support.

Eby struggled in the two leadership debates in 2024 and failed to build momentum for the NDP through those appearances. Doerkson’s debate abilities remain largely untested, and he brings less political experience than the Conservatives’ leader in the previous election.

NDP Release Action Plan for BC

The NDP has released its “Action for You” plan, giving as much space to its record in government as to new commitments. This approach appears intended to address recent skepticism about Eby’s campaign announcements, particularly questions about why the NDP is only now introducing these measures.

Health care provides a clear example of this approach. Rather than emphasizing new campaign commitments for women’s and seniors’ health, the plan highlights previous investments and progress in connecting patients to primary care, recruiting health care workers, and building hospitals. As a result, there is very little that health stakeholders can leverage or connect to in this plan. 

The full action plan can be found on the BC NDP website. 

Eby Faces Criticism Over Family’s Use of $10-a-Day Childcare

David Eby’s confirmation that his family has benefited from $10-a-day childcare has become a significant campaign controversy. Only approximately 10 percent of BC childcare spaces offer the subsidized rate, and the government announced a three-year freeze on expanding the program earlier this year. The revelations have renewed scrutiny of access to affordable childcare, with the Conservatives criticizing Eby for benefiting from a program that remains unavailable to many families.

Eby said his child was already attending the centre when it became a $10-a-day facility. He explained that his family donated the difference between the previous fees and the subsidized rate because they did not need the discount, and would make a similar donation for their youngest child. However, he declined to disclose the donation amount. Asked whether the NDP would introduce means testing, Eby did not commit, instead emphasizing work with the federal government to expand affordable childcare. 

Politically, the controversy could reinforce resentment among families still struggling and widen the gap with the Conservative among young parents. The Conservatives are using the issue to challenge Eby’s credibility on affordability and the NDP’s record of delivering on its promises. With voting day approaching, the story risks keeping the party on the defensive during the campaign’s final stretch.

Conservative ICBC Reform Plan Revealed by Leaked Letter

The Conservatives also faced a campaign controversy over the past week after a letter revealed plans to replace ICBC’s no-fault insurance system with a hybrid model. Introduced by the NDP in 2021, the current system generally prevents accident victims from suing for injury compensation. Doerkson argues that reform is needed to better support people with serious or life-altering injuries while maintaining affordable premiums. 

The proposal became public through a September 29 letter released by MoveUP, the union representing ICBC workers. Addressed to legal and insurance organizations, including the Insurance Bureau of Canada and the Trial Lawyers Association of BC, the letter committed to legislation within the first year of a Conservative government, floating the possibility for litigation. It also left open the possibility of private competition in auto insurance. Doerkson subsequently said the letter had been circulated to more than 1,000 people and was not intended to be private. 

The NDP has seized on the letter to reinforce its argument that the Conservatives are not being transparent about their plans for BC, warning that the changes would benefit lawyers and private insurers at drivers’ expense. Politically, the controversy gives the NDP an opportunity to defend its affordability record and put the Conservatives on the defensive over potential increases in insurance costs.

Conservatives Promise $1,000 Tax Cut for Every Working British Columbian

Lorne Doerkson announced that a Conservative government would raise BC’s basic personal exemption from $13,216 to $32,000, promising provincial income tax savings of up to $1,000 annually. Coming shortly after the NDP proposed higher income taxes for those earning more than $192,000 a year, the announcement draws a clear distinction between the parties on taxation. The Conservatives also used it to remind voters of Eby’s unfulfilled promise to provide $1,000 in relief to every BC family.

The NDP responded by arguing that the resulting loss of revenue would lead to cuts to public services, reinforcing its broader campaign message about the risks of the Conservatives’ fiscal plans.

Health on the Campaign Trail

Conservatives Respond to NDP Claims about Health Spending

  • The Conservatives have directly challenged the NDP’s claims that a Conservative government would make sweeping cuts to health care, referring to the tactic as “fearmongering.” Doerkson had previously committed to maintaining health care funding and keeping BC’s system universal and publicly funded.
  • The party’s news release shifts attention to the NDP’s health care record under Eby, highlighting surgical wait times, hospital closures, and the number of British Columbians without a family physician.
  • Shortly afterward, the Conservatives released several health care commitments, including a seniors’ care plan and a pledge to build a cardiac catheterization lab in Nanaimo.

NDP Releases Plan for Women’s Health

  • The NDP announced a series of commitments to improve women’s health care in BC, including:
    • Opening a perinatal mental health unit at BC Women’s Hospital.
    • Providing PharmaCare coverage for non-hormonal menopause treatment for breast cancer survivors and other women who cannot use hormone therapy.
    • Allowing pharmacists to prescribe local vaginal estrogen to treat recurrent urinary tract infections.
    • Expanding access to menopause care and reducing delays in diagnosing women’s health conditions.
    • Strengthening community sexual and reproductive health services across BC.
  • The announcement builds on previous NDP initiatives, including PharmaCare coverage for hormone replacement therapy and contraceptives, funding for one round of IVF, and the introduction of at-home cervical cancer screening kits. Compared with those measures, the new commitments are more targeted, with some offering limited detail on implementation. The announcement also provided an opportunity for the NDP to remind women – a critical base of support for the NDP – of the party’s record on women’s health.

Conservatives Release Plan for Seniors Health

  • Alongside a pledge to reverse the NDP’s changes to the property-tax deferment program, the Conservatives announced several commitments to improve seniors’ care in BC:
    • Reducing design requirements for long-term care facilities to lower construction costs and deliver more beds.
    • Funding placements at qualified non-governmental long-term care facilities for seniors awaiting placement.
    • Expanding publicly funded home care services.
    • Expanding HandyDART services.
    • Providing free shingles vaccinations.
    • Providing means-tested financial support for hearing aids.

NDP Sign Public Health Guarantee

  • All BC NDP candidates signed a “Public Health Guarantee,” pledging to protect publicly funded care and prevent out-of-pocket charges for insured services. The initiative is clearly part of the party’s efforts to frame the Conservatives as a threat to BC’s public health care system. Commitments include:
    • Investing in health promotion and public awareness campaigns to counter vaccine misinformation.
    • Closing loopholes that allow clinics to charge user fees or extra-bill for publicly insured services.
    • Over three years, capping private agency nursing fees and hours in hospitals and redirecting funding to GoHealth BC, which deploys public-sector nurses to rural emergency departments.

The Week Ahead

What We’ll Be Watching

  • Debate’s impact on the campaign: The two debates in 2024 had little apparent impact on the race, with no leader landing a decisive blow. Eby enters Wednesday’s debate as the most experienced participant, but also faces considerable pressure to perform. Doerkson’s priorities will be to present the Conservatives as a moderate alternative, counter the NDP’s accusations, and challenge its record in government.
  • Conservative Party platform: The Conservatives have made several announcements but have yet to release a full platform. Their 2024 platform largely appealed to the party’s base, emphasizing sweeping change over detailed commitments. This campaign has taken a different approach, positioning the Conservatives as a moderate alternative to the NDP. The platform will show how far that shift extends to their policy and fiscal plans.
  • Municipal election results: BC’s municipal elections take place on Saturday, October 17. Although overshadowed by the provincial campaign, the results could offer insight into local voter priorities and appetite for change. Their implications for the provincial race will require careful interpretation.

Notes for Clients

  • Build relationships following municipal elections: The results provide an opportunity to congratulate incoming mayors and councillors and establish relationships. Municipal leaders can be important allies for organizations seeking provincial funding or policy support.
  • Connect coverage proposals to the NDP’s health care guarantee: If the NDP is reelected, organizations seeking public coverage for medications and devices can connect their proposals to its broader commitment to reducing financial barriers to care. While the guarantee focuses on publicly insured services, it provides an opening to highlight gaps that leave British Columbians paying out of pocket for products covered in other provinces.