BC Election Update: Conservatives Maintain Lead

Executive Summary

October 20 – Entering the final week of the campaign, the BC Conservatives maintain a small lead over the NDP. In what has become a familiar feature of BC elections, the NDP has begun urging Green supporters to vote strategically for NDP candidates to avoid splitting the progressive vote. However, following a strong debate performance by Green Leader Emily Lowan, the effectiveness of this strategy appears limited.

The BC Conservatives dropped two candidates in NDP strongholds this week after divisive statements came to light. Controversial candidates in competitive ridings, including Heather Maas and Mike Hicks, remain on the ballot.

Both the Conservatives and the NDP released costed platforms over the past week, each projecting deficits exceeding $10 billion. This update includes a detailed analysis of the Conservatives’ health platform and the developments we will be watching as the campaign enters the final stretch.

Campaign Headlines

Conservatives Remain Slightly Ahead as NDP Urges Vote-Splitting with Greens

Conservatives maintain their lead: Polling continues to show a slight advantage for the BC Conservatives, although the two main parties remain in a statistical tie. The election increasingly appears likely to come down to a handful of ridings in the Lower Mainland, which includes Metro Vancouver and the Fraser Valley. Green support has become a major NDP talking point over the past week, as vote-splitting between the two parties threatens to give the Conservatives an advantage in several battleground ridings.

Polls from the past week

Source	NDP	CPBC	BC Greens
Leger	40 percent	42 percent	9 percent
Angus Reid	43 percent (unchanged)	46 percent (-2)	8 percent (+1)
Pallas	38 percent	43 percent	11 percent

NDP Appeal to Green Supporters: In what is becoming an election tradition, the BC NDP has begun urging Green supporters to temporarily lend their votes to the incumbent party to prevent vote-splitting that could deliver Conservative victories.
Conservatives Favoured in Seat Projections: Most seat projections strongly favour the Conservatives to win a majority in the legislature. The Writ, run by former CBC pollster Éric Grenier, recently gave the Conservatives a 72 percent chance of forming government, their largest advantage so far in this election.
Surrey Could Decide the Election Again: The 2024 election ultimately came down to Surrey-Guildford, where NDP candidate Gary Beggs won by 22 votes. Riding-level polling suggests that Surrey could again determine the outcome, with several races remaining extremely competitive.
Voters’ Impressions of Eby Worsen: Thirty-nine percent of BC residents report that their opinion of NDP Leader David Eby has worsened since the start of the campaign, compared with only 13 percent whose opinion has improved. Assessments of interim BC Conservative Leader Lorne Doerkson are more evenly divided: 23 percent report an improved opinion, while 20 percent say theirs has worsened. Eby’s unpopularity is becoming an increasingly heavy burden for the NDP.
Advance Voting Opened October 16: There was a historic turnout for advanced polling, with approximately one in 10 registered voters cast a ballot during the first two days, representing roughly 500,000 votes. Provincial advance voting opened one day before the municipal elections, allowing many British Columbians to cast both ballots on the same day.

Conservatives Release Official Platform and Costed Plan

The CPBC released its costed platform on Sunday, two days after advance voting began, prompting criticism from the NDP. Following considerable scrutiny during the debate and subsequent media coverage, the platform provided estimates of how the Conservatives would pay for their campaign commitments.

The Conservatives describe their approach as “restraint instead of austerity” and say a Conservative government would reduce the deficit to $10.8 billion by 2030. However, the figures cited for the final year of the plan suggest only modest savings relative to the NDP’s proposal: a Conservative deficit of $12.3 billion in 2028/29 compared with the NDP’s projected $12.55 billion.

Several assumptions underpinning the Conservative plan have drawn criticism from the NDP. The Conservatives project economic growth of 2.7 percent in 2027, 2.8 percent in 2028 and 3.2 percent in 2029, substantially exceeding federal projections for the province. Their forecasts also exceed those for neighbouring Alberta, which has benefited from higher oil prices. Compared with the NDP’s forecast, the Conservatives project an additional $2.6 billion in revenue from economic growth.

The Conservatives also propose offsetting spending through aggressive reductions in public-service costs and contingencies. They estimate savings of $2 billion over four years through a hiring freeze, attrition in positions outside frontline services, and reduced reliance on private consultants. The plan also proposes reducing the contingencies allocation by $2 billion annually.

Unions and health policy stakeholders in BC have begun questioning whether the Conservatives’ health commitments would keep pace with rising costs and population growth. The BCGEU gave the Conservatives’ health care promises a “D+,” compared with an “A−” for the NDP, while the Hospital Employees’ Union (HEU) warned that cuts to contingency funding would ultimately result in cuts to health care. Both unions have historically aligned with the NDP. The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives offered a broader critique of both parties, arguing that their focus on recruitment and training does not adequately address staff retention, hospital capacity and the province’s longstanding health care challenges.

NDP’s Costed Platform Includes Another Increase to 2026/27 Deficit

The NDP released its costed platform a few hours before Thursday’s debate. The timing appeared designed to put pressure on the Conservatives, who had yet to release their own costed plan. However, it also gave the other leaders an opportunity to highlight another increase in the NDP’s projected 2026/27 deficit.

The plan projects a $14 billion deficit, more than $700 million above the initial forecast and $300 million above the first-quarter update.

The increase largely reflects the NDP’s commitment to pause the expansion of the PST to professional services. The platform contains relatively little new spending, with new health investments totalling $589 million. While some unions historically aligned with the NDP have welcomed the party’s health commitments, the BC Nurses’ Union and Doctors of BC have outlined their election priorities without publicly endorsing the NDP’s plan.

Emily Lowan Emerges as Consensus Winner of Debate

The leaders of BC’s three major parties participated in their only debate of the campaign on Thursday. The event, hosted by the B.C. Broadcast Consortium, was moderated by Shachi Kurl, the president of the Angus Reid Institute. In the immediate aftermath, media commentary consistently identified one winner, Green Party Leader Emily Lowan. Although Lowan received less speaking time than the other two leaders, pundits praised her poise and effective questioning of Eby and Doerkson on health care, Indigenous rights and fiscal responsibility. Her performance appears to have solidified Green support, with increases particularly evident on Vancouver Island.

Lorne Doerkson took a measured approach, spending much of his speaking time attacking the NDP’s record while avoiding Eby’s verbal traps. Although some pundits criticized his lack of substantive answers on Conservative candidates and spending commitments, his performance resonated with Conservative voters.

Eby was arguably the loser of the night. Despite being the most polished and experienced debater on stage, he failed to land a decisive blow against Doerkson or effectively defend his government’s record. The worsening perceptions of Eby described above suggest that his campaign is still struggling to connect with voters. While far from a disastrous performance, the debate failed to move the race in his party’s direction at a moment when the NDP badly needed momentum.

Conservatives Drop Two Candidates as NDP Highlights Others Still Running

Candidate controversies are becoming a major issue heading into the final week. The Conservatives dropped two candidates in ridings where the party was not expected to be competitive. Joachim Agou was removed as the candidate in Victoria-Beacon Hill after extremist social media posts came to light. Jordan McIntosh, formerly the candidate in Vancouver-Strathcona, was similarly dropped after an anonymous X account minimizing the Holocaust was linked to the teenage candidate.

The Conservatives will have no endorsed candidate in either riding. Vancouver-Strathcona is arguably the safest NDP seat in the province, while Victoria-Beacon Hill is a clear two-way race between the NDP and the Greens.

Dropping the two candidates did little to end scrutiny of the Conservative slate. CentreBC Leader and former Conservative MLA Elenore Sturko revealed that Chilliwack candidate Heather Maas had described Sturko’s life as a gay woman as “immoral.” Over the weekend, Langford-Juan de Fuca Conservative candidate Mike Hicks made headlines after saying at a rally that First Nations “need to be conquered.”

The NDP has made these controversies a central campaign issue, arguing that some prospective members of the Conservative caucus hold views too extreme for voters to trust the party to govern effectively. Heading into the final stretch, the NDP hopes BC’s progressive voting majority will unite to prevent those candidates from taking power.

Municipal Elections Results Reflect a Province Ready for Change

BC’s October 17 municipal elections brought sweeping changes to many of the province’s largest municipalities. Turnout in Vancouver, Surrey, Delta, Langley, Saanich, Abbotsford and Burnaby was reportedly around 10 percent higher than in 2022. Media commentators and experts have attributed the increased participation to an electorate ready for change, an interpretation reinforced by many of the results.

Whether that appetite for change extends to the provincial government remains unclear. Progressive candidates won in several major provincial battlegrounds. In Surrey, outspoken conservative Brenda Locke lost her re-election bid to Doug McCallum. In Chilliwack, another important provincial battleground, progressive Jason Lum was elected. Vancouver also shifted back towards a progressive council, with Pete Fry defeating incumbent Ken Sims in the mayoral race.

Elsewhere, voters replaced right-wing mayors with more centrist alternatives. In Delta, Melissa Granum defeated incumbent George Harvie, while Kirk LaPointe defeated incumbent Mark Sager in West Vancouver.

How this dynamic translates provincially will be important to watch. The scale of turnover in mayoral offices, combined with high participation, suggests that British Columbians are frustrated with the status quo. Yet that demand for change rarely favoured right-wing candidates, with voters instead choosing progressives and moderates in many municipalities.

Health on the Campaign Trail

Conservative Health Platform Analysis

Commitment to Publicly Funded Care: Seemingly responding to repeated NDP attacks alleging that the Conservatives would expand privatization, the CPBC platform commits to “fully fund and protect our universal public health system.” Its proposed Universal Health-Care Guarantee would fund treatment through another qualified provider when medically recommended surgical wait-time benchmarks are exceeded. The BC government already has a mechanism to fund treatment in other jurisdictions when care is unavailable within a reasonable timeframe. The Conservatives appear to be proposing a more explicit link between eligibility for alternative care and surgical wait-time benchmarks.
$975 Million in New Health Investments: The Conservatives’ costed plan allocates $975 million over three years to implement its health commitments, exceeding the NDP’s proposed new investment. As with much of the platform, however, significant questions remain about how these estimates were developed. The NDP argues that the allocations are insufficient to deliver what the Conservatives have promised. For example, the plan allocates $205 million over three years to “protect universal health care and improve access.” This appears to encompass commitments to keep rural emergency departments and maternity wards open, conduct a system-wide review, invest in reforms to reduce wait times, and implement the Universal Health-Care Guarantee. These are ambitious and potentially expensive commitments. It is difficult to see how all commitments could be adequately funded within that allocation.
Launching a 100-Day Patients First Review: The CPBC has committed to an approach for which it has repeatedly criticized the NDP: launching a formal review of the health system. The review would examine innovations and reforms in other universal public systems to identify ways to reduce wait times, expand capacity, keep emergency departments open and strengthen rural health services. The Conservatives commit to keeping user fees out of provincial health care and identifying solutions within the publicly funded system.
Mental Health Plan Closely Resembles the NDP’s: Despite repeatedly attacking the government’s handling of mental health while in Opposition, the Conservatives have proposed a plan that closely resembles the NDP’s. This convergence largely reflects David Eby’s policy shift to the centre on this issue over the past several years, as the Conservatives largely ran on the same plan in 2024. The Conservatives describe their approach as “recovery-oriented,” but their commitments remain similar to those of the NDP, including improving access to care and expanding involuntary treatment, which the Conservatives call “mandatory treatment.” The main distinction from the NDP’s mental health plan is the Conservatives’ commitment to a full review of the Mental Health Act, which could pave the way for the more radical changes that many voters are seeking.
Supports for Children and Families: The platform includes several commitments aimed at young families, a key Conservative voting demographic. The party has polled well with this group and will need strong turnout among these voters to form government. Commitments include extending autism and disability funding, ensuring access to independent support providers, strengthening services and travel assistance for rural families, and improving mental health supports for vulnerable children and youth.

NDP Claims Conservative Contingency Cuts Would Impact Health Care

Over the weekend, former longtime Health Minister Adrian Dix held a press conference warning that the Conservatives’ proposed multibillion-dollar reduction in contingencies would have a profound impact on health care.

BC does regularly use contingencies to fund hundreds of millions of dollars in primary care, clinical services and mental health programs. Last year, the Contingencies Vote included $765 million explicitly allocated to health care. This covered health care and clinical services under the primary care strategy; mental health and addictions treatment, recovery programs and community supports; and the IVF pilot program.

However, reducing contingencies does not necessarily mean these programs would lose funding. Some allocations could be transferred into the Ministry of Health’s base budget, an approach many organizations would welcome as a more stable funding arrangement. Savings could also come from other contingency allocations, such as public-sector wages, Indigenous agreements, or economic development initiatives introduced by the NDP.

The Conservatives have not explained precisely how they would maintain health funding while reducing contingencies. They have, however, repeatedly committed to avoiding health care cuts. The NDP’s claim that the proposed reduction would necessarily lead to cuts in health services is therefore open to question, although the lack of detail leaves the Conservatives’ assurances difficult to assess.

The Week Ahead

What We’ll Be Watching

Voter Turnout: The proximity of the provincial and municipal elections has been a major criticism of Eby’s decision to call a snap election. Early turnout figures, however, suggest that participation has remained strong. Many municipalities recorded their highest turnout since at least 2014, while provincial advance voting attracted more than 500,000 voters in its first two days. Lower turnout is generally considered advantageous to the NDP because of its support among seniors, who tend to vote consistently. Higher turnout, particularly among younger voters, would be an encouraging sign for the Conservatives.
Vote-Splitting and Green Support: Although Green support is lower than in 2024, it remains sufficient to affect the outcome in closely contested ridings. The NDP is aggressively courting Green supporters, warning that splitting the progressive vote could deliver Conservative victories. Lowan’s strong debate performance may make those voters less willing to shift their support.
A Final Hail Mary from the NDP: The NDP has repeatedly adjusted its message throughout the campaign. An initial unsuccessful focus on Donald Trump gave way to a series of new policy proposals. When those announcements failed to generate sufficient momentum, the party shifted towards highlighting extremist views among Conservative candidates. None of these approaches has substantially changed the race, and the NDP continues to trail in the polls. Eby and his party may make one final attempt to connect with voters through another change in messaging or a new policy commitment.

Notes for Clients

Congratulate Mayors-Elect: Organizations whose advocacy depends on municipal relationships should send congratulatory notes and meeting requests to newly elected mayors. Early outreach can help put your organization’s priorities on their agendas. Santis is happy to assist with your outreach strategy and execution.
Prepare for an Inconclusive Result on Saturday: BC’s last election ultimately hinged on a 22-vote margin in Surrey. Polling suggests that several key battleground ridings could be similarly close this time. Recounts and outstanding ballots could delay confirmation of which party will form government until several days after election night.
Prepare for Post-Election Outreach: Begin preparing outreach materials that connect your organization’s priorities with the major parties’ platforms, then tailor them once the outcome is clear. Identifying those connections early will help your organization engage promptly with the incoming government. Speak with your Santis team about the most effective next steps after the election.