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BC Election Update: Polling Shows Tight Race as Eby Makes Flurry of Affordability Announcements

October 6, 2026

Week Two – 19 days until Election Day

Executive Summary

In the second week of the election campaign, BC polling points to a tightly contested election, with neither party holding a consistent lead and health care emerging as voters’ top priority. The NDP has shifted its campaign toward a flurry of affordability and health-care commitments, while continued infighting complicates the Conservatives’ efforts to present a credible alternative government. Forthcoming platforms will face scrutiny over how each party would fund its promises and improve access to care.

Campaign Headlines

Polling Points to a Closely Contested Race

Toss-up territory: Polling released over the past week suggests a closely contested race between the BC NDP and the Conservative Party of BC (CPBC). Both parties remain below their 2024 levels of support, and the findings do not yet establish a consistent advantage for either party.

Polls from the past week

Source NDP CPBC
Liaison Strategies 39 percent 40 percent
Ipsos 40 percent 42 percent
Innovative Research Group 41 percent 39 percent
Leger (decided voters only) 36 percent 39 percent
  • Leger’s findings provide further context for the competitive race. 58 percent of respondents believe the province is “on the wrong track,” suggesting significant dissatisfaction with its direction under the NDP. Meanwhile, 28 percent say they are likely to switch their vote, rising to 41 percent among those aged 18 to 34.
  • While these findings suggest an opening for the opposition, the same poll highlights concerns about the Conservatives’ readiness to govern. 57 percent of respondents expressed concern that some BC Conservatives hold views they consider too extreme. More than half also expressed doubts about the credibility of the party’s current leadership and indicated that internal divisions make them less likely to support the party.
  • Taken together, the findings suggest that dissatisfaction with the NDP has not translated into a clear preference for a Conservative government. Both parties face challenges in consolidating support as the campaign progresses.

NDP Shifts Campaign Focus to Affordability, Confronts Big Business

Following criticism of its Trump-focused campaign narrative, the NDP has shifted toward more immediate affordability concerns, announcing a series of measures aimed at reducing living costs.

  • Cutting gas & diesel taxes: NDP Leader David Eby committed to reducing the provincial motor fuel tax on gasoline and diesel by 10 cents per litre in response to price increases linked to the U.S.–Iran war. He also pointed to BC Utilities Commission data that he said showed oil companies inflating their margins by as much as 20 cents per litre.
    • Alongside the tax reduction, the NDP proposed empowering the BC Utilities Commission to set maximum retail prices for gasoline and diesel. The proposed “price guard” positions the party as taking direct action on both taxes and industry pricing.
  • Capping grocery profits: Eby subsequently announced a proposed cap on profit margins for grocery essentials, including milk, eggs, cheese, butter and poultry. 
    • The announcement, made outside a Save-On-Foods, attracted criticism from political opponents and some media commentators as it was seen as a slight against both a proudly B.C.-based company (vs. targeting American grocery chains) and its owner Jim Pattison, who is a well-known philanthropist who has donated to a number of hospitals across the province.
    • The proposal has also renewed scrutiny of the NDP’s unfulfilled 2024 grocery rebate commitment. 
    • These questions further complicate the party’s efforts to establish credibility on affordability.
  • Confronting developers and taxing unsold condos: Alongside its grocery and fuel announcements, the NDP has taken a more confrontational approach toward real estate developers. Speaking outside a new Vancouver condominium development, Eby proposed a tax on unsold condominium units.
  • The announcement stands in contrast to the government’s recent approach to the housing market. In August, Eby joined the federal government in announcing plans to purchase 2,200 empty condominiums, a move critics characterized as a bailout for developers. At the time, he attributed weak market activity to higher interest rates and reduced investment demand, necessitating government involvement to ensure developers can continue to invest in new projects in BC. 
  • The proposed tax signals a shift from supporting the absorption of unsold inventory to penalizing developers who hold empty units. This creates an opening for opponents to question the consistency of the NDP’s housing policy.
  • More broadly, the announcements suggest an effort to position the NDP as challenging major business interests on affordability. This approach stands in contrast to the “reset with the business community” Eby called for following the 2024 election. While the shift may resonate with the NDP’s base, it could complicate efforts to rebuild relationships with the business community should the party return to government.

NDP Falls Short of a Full Candidate Slate

Candidate recruitment remained a challenge through the close of nominations. Despite initiating the snap election, the NDP failed to field a candidate in Peace River North, citing a filing error. The Conservatives were the only party to nominate candidates in all 93 ridings. The BC Greens will contest 73 ridings, while CentreBC and OneBC will field candidates in 35 and 33 ridings, respectively.

The limited reach of CentreBC and OneBC means that potential vote splitting on the right will be concentrated in a smaller number of constituencies. Its significance will depend on where those parties attract support and how competitive those races become.

Meanwhile, the BC Greens’ broader candidate slate creates more opportunities to draw support from the NDP. If their polling gains hold in competitive ridings, vote splitting on the left could prove consequential.

Right-of-Centre In-Fighting Continues

While the NDP focused on affordability commitments, the Conservatives remained engaged in disputes with other right-of-centre parties. These tensions continue to complicate CPBC Leader Lorne Doerkson’s efforts to broaden the party’s appeal and consolidate its support.

Early in the week, OneBC announced that it would not field candidates in eight ridings represented by candidates it described as “principled conservatives.” Its list included Anna Kindy, Heather Maahs, Kristina Lowen, Sharon Hartwell, Macklin McCall, Sheldon Clare, David Williams, and Lawrence Mok.

Although intended to limit vote splitting, the announcement also gave the NDP an opening to associate Conservative candidates with OneBC’s positioning. It has complicated the Conservatives’ efforts to present a more centrist image and raised questions about whether Lorne Doerkson approves of some of the more extremist views of candidates like Heather Maas and Anna Kindy. 

The Conservatives subsequently announced a candidate in OneBC leader Dallas Brodie’s riding, prompting criticism from Brodie. Doerkson later confirmed that informal discussions had taken place with OneBC about avoiding vote splitting.

The discussions drew criticism from both the NDP and CentreBC leader Elenore Sturko, a former Conservative MLA. With more than half of respondents in recent Leger polling identifying internal Conservative divisions as a concern, further disputes could undermine the party’s efforts to present a stable alternative government.

Health on the Campaign Trail

Health Care Emerges as Voters’ Leading Priority

  • Leger polling identifies health care as voters’ leading issue, with more than 15 percent of respondents selecting it as their top priority.
  • The findings suggest a shift in the campaign’s issue landscape. Housing has fallen from more than 25 percent to less than 14 percent, placing it below health care.
  • The NDP has begun to capitalize on this opening by stating that Conservative tax commitments would put health funding at risk. As platforms emerge, both parties will face pressure to explain how their fiscal plans would support improvements in access to care.

NDP Proposes Higher Income Taxes to Fund Health Care

  • The NDP announced proposed increases to provincial income tax rates for higher earners, stating that the measures would generate more than $1 billion in revenue to support additional health spending.
  • The proposed marginal provincial rates are:
    • $190,405-$265,545 will go from 16.8% to 18.8%
    • $265,546-$1,000,000 will go from 20.5% to 22.5%
    • A new tax on those earning more than $1 million annually at 24.5%
  • The Conservatives criticized the proposal as a tax increase on physicians, arguing that it could discourage recruitment to BC. The party pointed to the more than 300,000 British Columbians waiting to be connected with a family doctor.
  • The exchange highlights a growing divide in the parties’ health messaging: the NDP is emphasizing additional revenue for services, while the Conservatives are questioning the implications of higher taxes for workforce recruitment.

NDP Announces Commitments to Strengthen Health Care for Seniors

  • Premier Eby announced a series of health-care commitments for seniors on Monday, linking the proposed investments to the income tax increase announced late last week. These commitments include:
    • Covering the shingles vaccine for people aged 50 and older.
    • Adding 500 home care workers and eliminating fees for essential home care services.
    • Bringing more nurse practitioners into care homes so residents can receive treatment and prescriptions without leaving their facility.
    • Reviving plans for seven previously shelved long-term care homes.

Conservatives Commit to Maintaining Health Spending

  • In response to NDP claims that Conservative tax cuts would lead to reductions in health spending, Doerkson committed to maintaining health funding should his party form government.
  • However, he did not make a corresponding commitment to increase funding. Instead, he emphasized the NDP’s record on access to care, including recurring hospital and emergency department closures.
  • The commitment provides greater clarity about the Conservatives’ intentions, although questions remain about how the party would fund service improvements alongside its tax proposals.

NDP Targets Former Conservative Health Critic

  • Following OneBC’s identification of Anna Kindy as a “principled conservative,” the NDP circulated videos highlighting her previous opposition to vaccination.
  • The NDP has emphasized Kindy’s former role as Conservative health critic to raise questions about the party’s approach to health policy. The intervention seeks to connect broader concerns about Conservative candidates’ views with the party’s readiness to oversee the health system.

The Week Ahead

What We’ll Be Watching

    • Party platforms and costing details: With nominations closed, attention will increasingly turn to the parties’ platforms, expected over the coming weeks. We will watch how recent affordability and health commitments translate into detailed proposals, spending plans and implementation timelines.
    • Conservative efforts to unite the right: Whether discussions with OneBC lead to further cooperation, and how that affects Conservative support. Any potential gains from limiting vote splitting will need to be weighed against the risk of weakening the party’s appeal to more moderate voters.
  • Where Young Voters Park their Vote: Over 40 percent of voters aged 18 to 34 have stated that they are planning to change their vote from 2024. Currently, it is unclear where these voters will park their votes, with both the BC Greens and CPBC being a possible destination. Female voters in this age group have been a historically strong constituency for the NDP, and losing their vote could have implications for their electoral prospects. 
  • Leaders’ debate arrangements: At the time of this memo, no leaders’ debate has been scheduled. The previous election featured two debates, including one held exclusively on radio. We will watch for confirmation of the format and participating leaders, and whether the debates alter the campaign’s direction.

Notes for Clients

  • Intensify outreach through local relationships: With Elections BC confirming accepted nominations, clients can now target outreach to candidates in relevant ridings. Concise proposals supported by local patient experiences and constituency-level impacts will be most useful during the compressed campaign.
  • Connect proposals to provincial health priorities: With health care emerging as voters’ top priority, organizations and businesses with solutions to improve health system efficiency and capacity should engage party leaders. Outreach should clearly explain how proposals would address access pressures and deliver tangible improvements for patients.