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Liberal Leadership Announcement: What’s Next for the Federal Government?

March 11, 2025

Liberal Leadership Announcement: What’s Next for the Federal Government?

 

Context

On March 9, 2025, Mark Carney was announced as the new leader of the Liberal Party of Canada with a landslide victory of 85.9% of the votes. Chrystia Freeland came in second place, with 9% of the votes, followed by Karina Gould and Frank Baylis.

What’s Next

Transition of Power: A date has yet to be set for Prime Minister Justin Trudeau to transfer his power officially. Prime Minister Trudeau has said he will keep his role for a few days or weeks to help with the transition but will step down once Carney is officially sworn in. 

Carney, currently considered the Prime Minister-designate, met with Trudeau on Monday to discuss the transition. Once the date for a transfer of power is set by Carney, Prime Minister Trudeau will have to meet with the Governor General, tender his resignation and ask her to invite the new Liberal leader to form government. It is anticipated that this meeting could happen as early as Tuesday, March 11. Following Carney’s swearing-in, he is expected to name a new, leaner Cabinet that will take him into the next federal election. 

Carney has also been working to staff up his office as quickly as possible, with Marco Mendicino, a former Trudeau Minister, already confirmed to be interim Chief of Staff.

Federal Election: Carney is not currently an elected Member of Parliament (MP) and does not have a seat in the House of Commons. Along with the significant shift in the polls in favour of the Liberals over the last two months, there is speculation that a new Cabinet will be sworn in on March 13 or March 14, and an election called before parliament is scheduled to resume on March 24.

As per the Elections Act, the election or campaign period – the “writ” –  must be at least 37 days and no more than 51 days. Election day must also fall on a Monday except in rare circumstances, meaning that an election is typically called on a Sunday. Provided he swears in his new Cabinet this week, Carney could seek to go to the polls as soon as Sunday, March 16 with an election day as early as April 21. Given Easter weekend, however, it is more likely that he would seek to set election day the following week, on April 28.

Victory Speech Policy Highlights

Mark Carney outlined a range of issues in his victory speech at the Liberal convention this weekend, particularly highlighting the Trump/United States dynamic, taking on the Conservatives in the upcoming election, and the need to invest in Canada: 

  • United States: Carney accused President Trump of trying to weaken the Canadian economy. He commended the work done by Prime Minister Trudeau and his government to instate retaliatory tariffs and economic supports for those impacted, implying he would continue this level of response to any ongoing tariff war.  
  • Conservative Party of Canada (CPC): Carney also drew parallels between President Trump and Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre, calling out the leader for his lack of experience outside of politics and his refusal to get security clearance.  
  • Investing in the Canadian economy: It is clear that Carney’s plan will be keenly focused on investing in Canada’s own economy and growing our ability to deliver within our own borders. He indicated a clear intention to work with the provinces and territories and focus on fostering one Canadian economy, as opposed to the divided, piecemeal economy that’s built up throughout the 13 jurisdictions.  
  • Health: Carney highlighted the importance of a publicly funded health care system while comparing Canada to the United States. He also made clear that he will continue to fight for dental care and pharmacare for those who need it. 

Status of Liberal Nominations

Mark Carney will need to strike a balance between creating a cabinet with incumbents who are likely to win their ridings, and a turnover of Ministers in safe Liberal ridings to renew the Liberal cabinet. He may also choose to retain Ministers of key files related to ongoing tariff negotiations with U.S. President Donald Trump. 

  • Christya Freeland has not confirmed since the leadership race concluded whether she will run in the upcoming election. Early in the leadership race, her campaign team assured potential voters that she would run again even if she did not come out on top, but it is unclear if that will hold true after such a significant loss.
  • Karina Gould, who stepped down from her role as Liberal House leader to take a run at the party’s top job, said she plans to run again in the next federal election. She placed third in the leadership race, with 3.2% of the vote. 
  • Frank Baylis, chairman of a medical technology company and former MP, came in last place of the leadership race with 3%  of the vote. He has indicated that he is happy to support Carney in whatever capacity he thinks is best. 
  • Marci Ien, Minister for Women and Gender Equality and Youth, announced that she will not run in the next election, freeing up the Toronto Centre riding which she has represented since 2020. 

See here for a list of MPs not running in the next election. 

Santis Insights

  • Dramatic polling reversal: Recent polling has made clear that the CPC may not walk into victory as easily as they may have two months ago. While CPC is still leading on many metrics, there has been a notable trend towards increased support for the Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) , especially on the metric of who best should lead Canada against Trump’s economic threats. It will soon be established if this polling trend will continue.  
  • Economic credibility: While the CPC is traditionally considered to be the favourite on matters related to the economy, having Carney, an economist and former Governor of the Bank of Canada, as the leader of the LPC presents a challenge for the CPC to overcome.  
  • CPC focus on Trudeau & the Carbon Tax: The change in leadership is also pushing the CPC to rethink their strategy on key wedge issues and attack ads. After spending significant time and resources on anti-Trudeau and anti-carbon pricing messaging, a new leader with a new stance on the future of carbon pricing has meant that the CPC has to adjust their focus – something that has so far proven difficult. Currently, the CPC has invested in new advertisements to establish Mark Carney as being associated with both Justin Trudeau and the carbon tax.  
  • What issues will stick with the population? Political parties will seek to define themselves before the opposition does that for them. There are two dynamics that will be important to monitor (1) what attacks and issues will stick with the Canadian population based on the respective narratives coming from both the CPC and LPC, and (2) if there is a turning point that attack ads become a liability for the political party launching them. 

With Mark Carney taking over as leader of the LPC, all eyes will be on both the shift in policy priorities of the Party and on the CPC as they rework their strategy to try and reverse recent polling trends.