Rapid Recap: 2025 Ontario Fall Economic Statement

Thursday, November 6, 2025 – This afternoon, Ontario’s Finance Minister, Peter Bethlenfalvy, presented the 2025 Fall Economic Statement, A Plan to Protect Ontario, with a focus on four key themes:

Protecting Workers and Businesses;
Protecting Ontario by Unleashing Its Economy;
Protecting Ontario by Building;
Protecting Ontario by Keeping Costs Down.

As expected, the Fall Economic Statement (FES) doubled down on the theme from the 2025 Ontario budget: protecting the provincial economy from external threats, namely U.S. tariffs.

The government’s narrative revolves around prudence, self-reliance, and defending “Ontario-made” industries. Ontario’s fiscal plan pairs targeted spending on key files with a deliberate use of the tax system to shape behaviour. Key examples of this tax-based strategy include the proposed new Harmonized Sales Tax (HST) rebate for first-time home buyers on new homes and the implementation of the enhancement and expansion of the Ontario-Made Manufacturing Investment Tax Credit (OMMITC). The FES also announced a new Tax Action Plan to come in Budget 2026.

The provincial deficit for 2025-26 is now forecast at $13.5 billion, a $1.1 billion improvement over the 2025 budget. However, the caveat is that real GDP will only see a moderate increase of 0.8% in 2025. The plan includes a $2 billion reserve for each of the next three years, and a critical in-year $2 billion top up, bringing the 2025-26 total to $4.5 billion.

With these reserves, the government is giving itself wiggle room to respond to any economic headwinds next year, so that the path to a balanced budget by 2027-28 remains on track.

New Health Announcements

Home care was the clear health winner (if any) in the FES with an investment of $1.1 billion over three years in home care services and the Hospital to Home (H2H) program over three years announced last week. The investments include: $982 million for services: An 8% increase in funding to connect more patients with home care services from nurses, physiotherapists, and social workers; and $170 million for Hospital to Home programs: Supporting the development of 18 new Hospital to Home sites and the expansion of 23 existing sites. ICYMI, you can check out our Santis analysis of the investment here.

Other sparse, net new investments in health care included increasing regional acute care capacity at Halton Healthcare Services. The project is creating up to 123 beds within the next 18 to 24 months by renovating existing space in the Oakville Trafalgar Memorial Hospital and Milton District Hospital to serve as a regional hub. The government also committed to upgrading the Charles H. Best Diabetes Centre in Durham Region.

While the FES was light on other new health spending, one of the most significant legislative developments for the health care sector was the introduction of legislation to enable an “Any Willing Provider” framework. Following the second consultation on Preferred Provider Networks (PPN), announced in Budget 2025, the government is now introducing this legislation. The new framework would allow any pharmacy willing to match a PPN’s financial terms to join. According to the government, this is intended to enable expanded consumer choice and competition in the pharmacy sector, while maintaining cost-effective access to medications. The legislation will also include a standardized, transparent process for patients to seek exemptions from PPNs where appropriate.

The “Any Willing Provider” framework is a major advocacy win for smaller pharmacies, as it neutralizes the threat of exclusion from networks. Conversely, this move could weaken the negotiating power of private payers, who can no longer use exclusive patient volume to secure deep discounts. As a result, pharma should anticipate increased cost-containment pressure on drug formularies as payers look to find savings elsewhere.

The FES legislation also introduces the removal of restrictions on Ontario Health’s or Ontario Health atHome’s ability to borrow, lend or invest money. Additionally, the legislation brings in previewed changes to election campaign financing and third party advertising, as well as “As of Right” labour mobility for health and other skilled professions.

Callout to Life Sciences Priorities

With little net new in FES, several important callouts were made to Ontario’s life sciences priorities. Life sciences was identified as a key high-growth industry to be targeted as part of the remaining $4 billion in the loan program, the Protecting Ontario Account, along with artificial intelligence. The only net new research announcement was a small $200,000 annual commitment for three years for the Gairdner Foundation to invest in biomedical research.

On the investment attraction front, the government re-committed to $40 million in new venture capital funding via Venture Ontario to support life sciences companies and biomanufacturers. It was also revealed that Invest Ontario has announced over $8.2 billion in investments to date, which are expected to create more than 10,200 good-paying jobs. The government appears to be leaning heavily into the new investment agency to shore up Ontario’s business environment in light of the U.S. tariff threat.

With the finance minister’s heavily focusing on the potential of nuclear energy, (whether it’s small modular reactors or nuclear refurbishment) part of the grand strategy also includes a focus on medical isotopes. The government has put forth an $18 million commitment to increase production of medical isotopes at the McMaster Nuclear Reactor, expanding operations to 24 hours a day, seven days a week, producing custom medical isotopes for up to 84,000 treatments each year.

Callout to Ontario’s Primary Care Action Plan

The FES also mentioned the province’s $2.1 billion Primary Care Action Plan which aims to connect two million Ontarians to a primary care provider by 2029. The FES highlighted several initiatives:

An investment of $235 million in 2025–26 to create and expand over 130 primary care teams to connect over 300,000 people.
An investment of $300 million over four years to build up to 17 new and expanded community-based primary care teaching clinics, which will allow 300,000 more people to be connected.
An investment of over $250 million to launch the second call for proposals and create and expand approximately 75 additional primary care teams, connecting 500,000 more people.

With the second call for proposals for primary care teams coming to a close, Ontarians can anticipate the announcement of a new cohort of new and expanded teams in Spring 2026, likely alongside the release of budget.

New Procurement Announcements

During today’s introduction of the FES in the House, Minister Bethlenfalvy notably said, “the biggest future trade partner for Canada is Canada.” The FES highlighted the government’s intention to use its $30 billion in annual Supply Ontario procurements to champion “made-in-Ontario products.”

This approach, while not entirely novel for the Ford government, is now a confirmed cornerstone of the “Protect Ontario” plan, and built on three key pillars:

Restricting U.S. Businesses: The FES re-commits to the government’s policy of temporarily restricting public-sector procurement from U.S. businesses in response to tariffs. External analysis confirms this policy applies to all Broader Public Sector (BPS) entities, including hospitals, universities, and school boards. A “U.S. business” is generally defined as one headquartered in the U.S. with fewer than 250 full-time employees in Canada.
Ramping Up “Buy Ontario”: This includes continuing to use the Building Ontario Businesses Initiative (BOBI) and its associated legislation, which gives preference to Ontario businesses in public-sector competitions.
New “Made-in-Ontario” Vehicle Policy: The single new proposal in this area is a plan to develop a “made-in-Ontario” vehicle policy. This would require the public sector and its agencies to prioritize purchasing vehicles made in Ontario.

While the FES sets a strong political direction, it is light on the operational details of how this “Buy Ontario” preference will be implemented, particularly for health care and life sciences. The FES confirms the what (prioritize Ontario) but not the how. The tangible implications of this policy will become clearer as we see the refreshed mandate of Supply Ontario (updated November 1) and any new BOBI guidelines.

The “Buy Ontario” procurement policy is one of the most critical signals in the FES. For all organizations—especially multinational pharma, med-tech, and digital health vendors—quantifying your Ontario-based jobs, R&D, and capital investment is no longer a “nice to have.” It is a central and mandatory part of any procurement or government relations discussion.

Major Non-Health Announcements

$150 million over three years in the Ontario Together Trade Fund to further help small and medium-sized businesses diversify into new markets and strengthen trade resiliency.
Developing the second and third streams of the Protecting Ontario Account, with an investment of $4 billion to help businesses transition away from overreliance on U.S. trade relationships, increase productivity and invest in domestic supply chains and in high-growth industries, like artificial intelligence, defence, advanced manufacturing, life sciences, and research and development in the critical minerals sector
$1 billion through the Building Ontario Fund invested into the Darlington New Nuclear Project (DNNP).
$100 million in the Ontario Together Trade Fund (OTTF) to further help small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) diversify into new markets and strengthen trade resiliency.
Up to $1 million in HST rebates for first-time home buyers – mirroring the move by the Federal Government.
Increasing the Employer Health Tax (EHT) exemption from $490,000 to $1 million. The EHT exemption increase helps businesses by reducing the tax for eligible private-sector employers.

Opposition Response

In response to the Fall Economic Statement, the Official Opposition New Democratic Party (NDP) have criticized the Ford Government, saying that the premier has failed to deliver for working people. Their newly-launched website DougFordJobsDisaster.ca outlines the number of unemployed Ontarians, the number of jobs at risk and lost in the province, and the sectors likely to be hit the hardest (housing, manufacturing, public service, etc.). They also criticize the premier’s “Captain Canada” approach and call on him to put workers and the future of the province first. The Liberal bench took a similar tack in criticism around the Progressive Conservative (PC) government’s perceived mismanagement of the economy and skills training initiatives.

What’s Next?

Members of Provincial Parliament (MPPs) will debate the budget legislation, Bill 68, Plan to Protect Ontario Act (Budget Measures), 2025 (No.2), over the coming weeks before the House adjourns for the winter break in mid-December. Organizations aiming to influence fiscal and health priorities in Ontario are encouraged to actively participate in the province’s annual pre-budget consultation process. The Ministry of Finance will launch its 2026 Budget Consultations in the coming days and will provide additional information about opportunities for public and stakeholder participation.

Interested in learning more about the Fall Economic Statement? Need to understand what the Fall Economic Statement means for your organization? Contact one of our Santis Health experts today:

Clare Michaels – clare.michaels@santishealth.ca
Nabiha Paracha – nabiha.paracha@santishealth.ca
Dylan Brenneman – dylan.brenneman@santishealth.ca