Tuesday, April 14, 2026 – Late last night, Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada successfully secured a slim majority government with 174 seats following a sweep of three federal by-elections.
In Scarborough Southwest, Liberal candidate Doly Begum won the seat following the resignation of Liberal Cabinet Minister and Member of Parliament (MP) Bill Blair, who had served the riding since 2015 but stepped away earlier this year to serve as Canada’s high commissioner to the United Kingdom. Ms. Begum, a former New Democratic Party (NDP) Member of Provincial Parliament (MPP) and deputy leader, secured nearly 69% of the vote, beating out the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) candidate, Diana Filipova, who received about 18%. The voter turnout in Scarborough Southwest was 33%.
The Liberals also maintained University–Rosedale, with Dr. Danielle Martin securing a decisive win following the resignation of another former Trudeau-era Liberal Cabinet Minister and MP, Chrystia Freeland. Martin’s entry into the House of Commons may give her the podium to continue to advocate for issues she has taken on in the past, including the Canada Health Act, primary care modernization and national pharmacare. In her victory speech, Martin made her intentions clear, stating, “This is not a mandate to be quiet. It is not a mandate to take our time. It is a mandate to get to work.”
Lastly, in a much more contentious race, Liberal candidate Tatiana Auguste ultimately tallied the majority vote in the Québec riding of Terrebonne, defeating Bloc Québécois candidate, Nathalie Sinclair-Desgagné, by just 731 votes. This by-election was called following the Supreme Court of Canada’s nullification of last year’s result, where Elections Canada called the result for Ms. Auguste by just one single vote. Following election night in 2025, this determination was challenged by the Bloc, who cited a ballot processing error that would have resulted in a tie. With Terrebonne being historically more of a Bloc stronghold, a slightly more decisive win during this by-election could be a signal of Prime Minister Carney’s message resonating well throughout the province of Québec. Voter turnout in this by-election was the highest at 50%.
These by-elections come on the tail-end of an energetic Liberal Party of Canada National Convention, which saw a record-breaking 4,000+ delegates gather in Montreal over this past weekend to discuss the forward policy vision of the Party, and hear from Ministers, Secretaries of State, and other elected officials on key issues of interest. Workshop and panel topics covered a broad range of themes, including artificial intelligence, public health care, diversifying trade, affordability, and infrastructure, giving government officials the opportunity to outline their ongoing vision for Canada under this mandate.
Election results are not expected to result in a major change of the Liberal Party’s overall mandate or direction. However, as the Liberals settle into their newly minted majority government — the first federally since 2019 — Prime Minister Carney and his Cabinet will be looking to capitalize on their secured power to move key policies and legislation in short order. Their ability to make progress in their priority areas without reliance on partnerships with other parties could allow for increased momentum on delivering on the Party’s 2025 platform commitments and, perhaps more importantly, create a level of stability within the government that Canadians are seeking at a time of great political instability globally.
With that said, the election of Dr. Danielle Martin, a staunch advocate for enforcement of the Canada Health Act, pharmacare, and public health care, will likely push the government on their current approach to health care, which has been more passive and less interventionist.
In a statement released late last night, Prime Minister Carney congratulated all three new MPs and indicated that the government would try and continue to work collaboratively with all parties in the House of Commons to advance a stronger economy, improve affordability, and build a stronger Canada. Prime Minister Carney is set to hold a press conference at 10:00am today to “announce new measures to bring down costs for Canadians” and will no doubt have more to say on these by-election outcomes.
CPC leader Pierre Poilievre, on the other hand, released a statement calling out the fact that this majority would not have been secured without the five floor-crossings that have taken place over the past several months and vowing to continue to fight for affordability and safety.
Santis Insights
- Committee Restructuring Likely to Be Priority: Although the Liberals have now secured a majority, the existing structures of Standing Committees will remain the same unless action is taken, meaning that the government could still struggle to control committee agendas and pass legislation. While prorogation is an option for a reset, a majority in the House of Commons also presents an opportunity for the governing party to simply introduce a motion to reorder the party standings on committees. As the Liberals have secured more than the necessary 172 seats to pass such a motion, they will likely seek to pursue this option rather than prorogation.
- Cabinet Shuffle on the Horizon: As Prime Minister Carney secures more caucus members under his own banner and nears the one-year mark on forming government, it is highly likely he will seek to overhaul his Cabinet in the short-term. A majority government – however slim – provides the ability for a longer-term vision and the Prime Minister will want to ensure that the people he has around his Cabinet table are the right combination to deliver on his forward plan.
- Current Seat Count Not Indicative of Long-Term Stability: While 174 seats is a much more comfortable situation for the Liberals, the relatively slim majority means there remains a risk of ongoing changes to the seat count that could bring Prime Minister Carney down to a much more narrow lead over the coming months. For example, Beaches—East York MP Nathaniel Erskine-Smith, who is running to be the leader of the Ontario Liberal Party, may look to resign his seat as that contest heats up. Although there is some cushion with the current seat count, any additional unexpected resignations would certainly put the majority in jeopardy.
Biographies
Doly Begum is an accomplished community leader who was first elected to represent Scarborough Southwest in the Ontario Legislature in 2018. She most recently served as the Deputy Leader of the Ontario NDP and Shadow Minister for Public Transit. Prior to her election, Doly served in leadership roles in various local organizations, including as Co-Chair of the Scarborough Health Coalition and Vice-Chair of Warden Woods Community Centre.
Dr. Danielle Martin is a family physician and health care leader who has spent two decades caring for patients in her family medicine practice, serving as Executive Vice-President at Women’s College Hospital, and leading the Department of Family and Community Medicine at the University of Toronto, the largest academic department of family medicine in the world.
Tatiana Auguste is a community leader who previously served as vice-president on the board of directors of Télévision Communautaire de Frontenac, and was instrumental in stopping the closure of the television broadcaster that has existed for more than 30 years. As Member of Parliament for Terrebonne, she introduced a Private Member’s Bill to establish a national strategy on flood and drought forecasting to better help communities and industries. She also worked to protect and promote the French language as Vice-Chair of the Canadian Branch of the Assemblée parlementaire de la Francophonie.