Rapid Recap: BC election results uncertain with BC NDP up one seat over the BC Conservatives
Monday, October 21, 2024 – The BC NDP and BC Conservatives were left in a near deadlock following the vote count Saturday night with no party achieving the 47 seats needed to form a majority government in the 93 seat legislature. Based on current results, the BC NDP held onto 46 seats, the BC Conservatives surged to 45 seats and the BC Greens hold the balance of power with two seats. Extremely close races in at least three ridings will likely require recounts to determine who will form the next government. The BC Greens will likely hold the balance of power with early signals suggesting they would support the BC NDP.
Based on the preliminary results, the BC NDP secured 44.59% of the total votes with the BC Conservatives securing 43.57%, reflecting recent public opinion polls showing divided support between the two dominant parties. Elections BC reported that 57% of eligible voters cast a ballot with a record one million votes, representing 28%, cast in advance polls. Voters in Metro Vancouver and on Vancouver Island contended with an atmospheric river which resulted in flooding and a loss of power in some voting locations which impacted both turnout and the vote count.
It will be at least a week before the results are finalized which includes counting votes which were cast outside of a voter’s home riding. Electronic vote count machines were used for the first time on election night but the final counts will be by hand and take place October 26 to 28. The ridings of Juan de Fuca-Malahat, Surrey City Centre and Surrey-Guildford all had extremely close results which will likely require recounts. For results that come within 1/500th of total votes counted will result in a judicial recount which takes place after the final count. Elections BC states the results are scheduled to be finalized by November 5 but legal challenges may extend this deadline.
British Columbians will likely experience deja vu in the coming weeks as the outcome was similar to the 2017 BC election when the BC Liberals led by Christy Clark won two more seats but lost government to the BC NDP led by John Horgan after the BC Greens agreed to support them. An exhaustive three week recount process that year did not change the result in any ridings from election night. Similar to 2017, Lieutenant Governor Janet Austin will decide who to call on to form government but the convention is that she’ll give the incumbent BC NDP the first opportunity.
BC NDP leader David Eby conceded the unclear outcome but framed the initial result as a clear majority for progressive values. However he also acknowledged that the BC Conservatives had tapped into frustrations such as health care, affordability and public safety while promising to be the premier who would bring B.C. together. “We’ve got to do better. And we will do better”, he told a ballroom of supporters. He said he hopes to work with the BC Greens to govern given the shared values and interests.
BC Conservative leader John Rustad said he would continue the fight and was optimistic that recounts would give his party the additional seats required to form government. If this did not happen he vowed to make it as hard as possible for the BC NDP to govern and force another election as soon as possible. His speech noted that his party which had not elected an MLA in decades and had not formed government in almost 100 years had nearly unseated a party which had been in office for two terms.
BC Green leader Sonia Furstenau lost her seat but expressed optimism that the two BC Green MLAs would play a pivotal role in the BC Legislature. She was unclear about her future, saying the election outcome represented a passing of the torch while committing to lead and be a mentor in whatever way is helpful to her new colleagues.
This campaign was bitterly fought by the two main parties, both offering very different visions of the future of the province. The BC Conservatives highlighted the ‘broken’ status quo and asked voters to trust them to bring common sense change back. The BC NDP touted their policy successes so far and warned of the extreme nature of the BC Conservatives, especially that of some of their controversial candidates.
Health care was one of the top issues cited by voters, along with housing/affordability and public safety. All three parties committed to increasing the health budget, redirect administrative funding to patient care, and working to increase access to care and the number of doctors and other health care professionals. The BC NDP said they’d prioritize reducing the administrative load on physicians, expanding Urgent and Primary Care Centres, growing the roles of physician assistants and pharmacists, and expanding travel supports for patients. The BC Conservatives said they’d increase the use of the private sector to deliver care, shift the funding model for health authorities to focus on services delivered, and offer out of province care to those who wait too long for care. The BC NDP consistently said the BC Conservatives would both cut health care funding and bring in a two-tier health care system, both of which the BC Conservatives denied.
Santis Health will unpack the results and its impacts at our ‘Unpacking the B.C. Election: What’s Next for Health?’ webinar on October 23 at 11 am PDT. Register here.