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Santis Memo: Recent Elections Point to a Volatile Electorate and the Need for Tangible Action on Health Care

 

Thursday, October 31, 2024 – Three provincial elections took place in October which saw governments of different political stripes face significant headwinds from voters with health care, education, affordability and housing being common issues throughout these contests. The elections saw a change of government in New Brunswick, while the incumbent governments in British Columbia and Saskatchewan remained in place, though with far fewer seats and a much stronger Official Opposition. 

British Columbia Results

In British Columbia, the B.C. NDP narrowly remained in office with a razor thin majority despite a surge in support for the opposition B.C. Conservatives. The election saw the B.C. NDP reduced to 47 seats, just enough for a bare majority in the 93 seat legislature. The B.C. Conservatives will form the Official Opposition with 44 seats while the B.C. Green Party retained the two seats necessary for official party status and could be a key influencer in the closely balanced legislature. 

Key health care issues for the new government will be:

  • Delivering on the promise of providing all British Columbians with a family doctor by 2025.
  • Building more Urgent and Primary Care Centres and ending ER closures.
  • Expanding involuntary care for those with addiction issues.

Saskatchewan Results

In Saskatchewan, Premier Moe’s centre-right Saskatchewan Party was re-elected by a reduced margin to a fifth consecutive government, but will now face the strongest Saskatchewan NDP official opposition that has been seen in the province since 2007. Pending final confirmation of all the results, it appears that the Saskatchewan Party will have 35 of the 61 seats in the legislature, down from 48 won in the last election, with the NDP holding the other 26. 

The re-elected Moe government will focus on a number of key health care priorities including:

  • Hiring more doctors, nurses and specialists, and retaining those already working in the province.
  • Reduce wait times in the health system, including for surgeries.
  • Increasing funding for targeted mental health and addictions services.
  • Investing in expanded health care services and resources for women.

New Brunswick Results

In New Brunswick, the Progressive Conservatives led Premier Blaine Higgs were defeated in a landslide by the Liberals who were led by Premier-Elect Susan Holt. In this election, the Liberals won 31 of the 49 seats in the legislature with the PCs winning 16 seats, down from 25, and the Green Party receiving two. 

New Brunswick’s new government will tackle many of the same issues as its western counterparts and attempt to deliver on campaign promises including:

  • Establishing and supporting 30 community care clinics.
  • Investing in modern technology, including centralized waitlists and standardized digital records management systems.
  • Expanding the Nursing Homes Without Walls model for greater access to home care.

Nova Scotia’s Upcoming Election

Nova Scotia Progressive Conservative Premier Tim Houston has just called a snap election, saying he needs a renewed mandate from voters. Health care, affordable housing, the cost of living, climate change and the relationship with the federal government are seen as likely to be key issues on the minds of voters when they go to the polls on November 26. 

It’s important to note that the 2021 election that ushered Tim Houston into the Premier’s chair was largely due to health care, specifically ambulance and acute care challenges that were a flash point in that election campaign. Currently the Progressive Conservatives are favoured to be re-elected as they benefit from a divided opposition of the Liberals and NDP. 

Commitments made so far during the campaign include:

  • A commitment by the Nova Scotia Liberals, echoed by the Nova Scotia NDP, to build new collaborative care centres and expand services at existing clinics, as well as a promise to offer one-time cash bonuses to professionals such as pharmacists and therapists and doubling the existing incentive for doctors.
  • A promise by the Nova Scotia PCs to to open a Halifax-based medical clinic to treat symptoms of menopause. A re-elected PC Government would also “explore” creating a provincial health billing code that would fund family doctors to do menopause counseling.

Early Federal and Ontario Elections?

The next federal election is scheduled to occur on or before October 20, 2025. However the withdrawal of formal support agreement by the NDP and speculation about Prime Minister Trudeau’s future could result in an election sooner. 

The timeline of the federal election is likely also driving Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservative government to send strong signals they may call an early election in advance of the fixed election date of June 4, 2026.

Final Thoughts

There are two key take-aways given all of these dynamics:

Change: Despite two provincial elections returning the government to power, both in B.C. and Saskatchewan, governments lost significant support to the opposition. The B.C. Conservatives a mere two seats away from majority government, and the opposition NDP in Saskatchewan doubled their seat count and swept both major metropolitan centers in the province. That, taken with the result in New Brunswick, points to an unsettled electorate who are looking for change. 

Less talk, more action on health care: Incumbent and newly elected governments are feeling the frustration from voters and will be looking for opportunities to demonstrate both immediate and incremental progress on the health care challenges in their jurisdictions. While different for each province, whether in Victoria or Halifax there are common themes through the need for more access to doctors and other health care workers, building and expanding health care facilities, and ensuring greater access to mental health services.