Tuesday, September 1, 2026 – Late last night, Prime Minister Mark Carney and the Liberal Party of Canada unsurprisingly maintained a slim majority government with 173 seats following a sweep of three federal by-elections.
In North Vancouver – Capilano, Liberal candidate Braeden Caley won the seat following the resignation of Liberal Cabinet Minister and Member of Parliament (MP) Jonathan Wilkinson, who had served the riding since 2015 but stepped away earlier this year to serve as Ambassador of Canada to the European Union (EU). MP Caley, a former political staffer and Deputy Chief of Staff to the Prime Minister, secured nearly 59% of the vote, beating out the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) candidateStephen Curran who received about 29% in votes. The voter turnout in the riding was 45.6%. MP Caley is trusted by the PM Carney administration, rumoured to be in consideration for a Cabinet post, and will be an influential voice in the Liberal caucus when the House of Commons returns.
The Liberals also maintained Beaches-East York, with Tanveer Shahnawaz securing a decisive win following the resignation of another former Trudeau-era Liberal Cabinet Minister and MP, Nate Erskine-Smith. MP-elect Shahnawaz is a longtime Liberal supporter and worked in Erskine-Smith’s constituency office for nearly a decade before Shahnawaz was appointed as a Special Assistant to the Federal Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities.
Lastly, in the most competitive race of the three seats, Liberal candidate and dairy farmer Daniel Gobeil ultimately won the majority vote in the Québec riding of Chicoutimi-Le Fjord, defeating Bloc Québécois candidate Caroline Dubé. The seat was vacated when star Conservative MP Richard Martel accepted a Senate appointment and stepped down from the seat. Voter turnout in this by-election was 42%. Campaigns centred heavily on sectoral tariff protections. Defence of aluminum, forestry, and local dairy (under the supply management system) became central to voter turnout, demonstrating that local economic preservation remains a decisive voting factor.
Election results are not expected to result in a major change of the Liberal Party’s overall mandate or direction.
In a statement released late last night, Prime Minister Carney congratulated all three new MPs and indicated that the government would try and continue to work collaboratively with all parties in the House of Commons to advance a stronger economy, improve affordability, and build a stronger Canada.
CPC leader Pierre Poilievre has criticized the floor-crossings required to earn the Liberal government their majority. His Conservative candidates were unsuccessful at winning a seat in yesterday’s three by-elections. The loss of one Conservative seat is a setback for Poilievre, but an expected one. The true test will come with the potential of six by-elections in the coming weeks. As many as two “safe” Conservative seats could be in the mix and any loss of those seats will put the Conservative leader in a more difficult position with caucus and the base.
The New Democratic Party (NDP) also saw few gains in these by-elections, though they will face the same tests as the Conservatives in the next by-elections. Pressure will continue on the new NDP Leader Avi Lewis to run for a seat at the earliest opportunity. The Bloc, too, will have a chance to redeem themselves after failing to win a “Quebec region” seat last night by holding onto Saint-Hyacinthe in the upcoming by-election. The results have been instructive for all opposition parties.
Santis Insights
- Parliamentary Return Set for September 21: With the House of Commons returning on September 21, the government faces immediate deadlines to introduce key legislation. Expect fast-tracked bills targeting trade/economic resilience and supply chain protections during the opening weeks of the fall session.
- Liberals Control the Legislative Agenda: By securing victories in the by-elections, Prime Minister Carney’s government retains the vote count needed to set the legislative agenda. This provides the Prime Minister’s Office (PMO) with the necessary breathing room to prioritize the economy as Parliament prepares to reconvene.
- Tariff Deal Decision Pays off at the Polls: The Liberal wins follow Prime Minister Carney’s decision to walk away from trade deal negotiations with the U.S. on August 21. The strategy successfully framed the government as a defender of national sovereignty and rallied support behind its economic mandate.
- Incoming Wave of Six More By-Elections: Six additional by-elections will be scheduled across Ontario, Quebec and Saskatchewan. These by-elections must be called within 180 days of the Speaker of the House informing the chief electoral officer about a vacancy in the House. The following ridings will serve as regional tests for government confidence and opposition strength:
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- Yorkton-Melville: MP Cathay Wagantall (Cons.) announced her resignation.
- Rosemont-La Petite-Patrie: MP Alexandre Boulerice (NDP) is moving into provincial politics.
- Saint-Hyacinthe-Bagot-Acton: MP Simon-Pierre Savard-Tremblay (Bloc) left for provincial politics.
- Laurier-Sainte-Marie: Hon. Steven Guilbeault (Liberal) resigned as an MP after PM Carney formalized a deal with Alberta that included plans for a new oil pipeline.
- Brantford-Brant South: MP Larry Brock (Cons.) will resign September 18th.
- Scarborough North: MP Shaun Chen (Liberal) resigned for health reasons.
- Pre-Parliament Cabinet Retreat to Set Strategy: An upcoming Cabinet retreat will allow the Ministers to map out priorities before the fall session in Banff from September 10-11.
Biographies
Braeden Caley has advised a variety of progressive political leaders in government and served in leading roles on their campaigns – including serving as Chief of Staff to PM Mark Carney, Senior Director for Communications for the Liberal Party of Canada and in key roles on Justin Trudeau’s federal election campaigns in 2015, 2019, and 2021, as Director of Policy and Communications for former Vancouver Mayor Gregor Robertson. Braeden was born and raised in Richmond, British Columbia. He earned a Bachelor of Arts in Political Science at the University of British Columbia.
Tanveer Shahnawaz is a community leader with deep roots in his riding. He served as a special assistant to the Minister of Housing, Infrastructure and Communities. He also served as constituency office manager for Liberal MP Nate Erskine-Smith in the riding of Beaches – East York, and co-chair of the Taylor-Massey & Oakridge Community Response Team.
Daniel Gobeil is an agricultural leader and advocate, as well as a dairy farmer with a Bachelor’s degree in Agronomy. He most recently served as Chair of Les Producteurs de lait du Québec, as well as Les Producteurs de lait du Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean. Daniel owns the Ferme du Fjord in La Baie, a family farm originally purchased by his grandfather where three generations now work together.