September 22, 2026 – Today, Premier David Eby called a snap election in British Columbia, following weeks of speculation and significant turmoil within the provincial opposition. The announcement follows Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s resignation as leader of the BC Conservatives and the consolidation of eight former Conservative MLAs under the CentreBC banner, led by Peter Milobar.
Eby has framed the election as necessary to secure a stable government and a united provincial response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s economic threats. The political calculation is also clear. Improved polling, uncertainty over Conservative leadership, and a divided centre-right opposition have created a substantially more favourable electoral environment for the BC New Democratic Party (NDP) compared to earlier this year.
However, the conditions that prompted the election will not necessarily determine its outcome. Findlay’s departure creates an opportunity for the Conservatives to rebuild, while persistent concerns about health care, affordability, and fiscal management leave the government vulnerable to a campaign focused on its record.
Election Details
How We Got Here
What We’ll Be Watching
David Eby’s Ability to Control the Narrative
Eby enters the campaign with improved personal standing, although the recovery is recent. His approval rose from 31% in Angus Reid’s June polling to 41% in September, providing a stronger foundation for the NDP’s campaign without necessarily signalling broad satisfaction with the government’s performance. A significant share of voters remain undecided, and the timing of Eby’s gains – alongside the collapse of Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s leadership – suggests they may partly reflect dissatisfaction with the opposition rather than renewed enthusiasm for the Premier. A new BC Conservative leader could therefore benefit from a “Carney effect,” attracting renewed support through a leadership reset and narrowing the NDP’s advantage.
The government has quickly moved to address several issues likely to feature in opposition messaging. Recent announcements include pausing the planned PST expansion, directing future BC Ferries construction toward British Columbia, advancing a renewed Burnaby Hospital redevelopment plan, and moving forward with long-term care investment in the Nanaimo area.
These announcements may reduce specific vulnerabilities, but health care access and fiscal management will remain significant campaign issues. Opposition parties will question both the timing of the commitments and the government’s ability to deliver them.
Findlay’s departure further complicates the NDP’s strategy. Eby will face a Conservative campaign whose leadership may be less familiar to voters, but also less closely associated with the recent turmoil. The government cannot assume that negative perceptions of Findlay will transfer automatically to her successor.
The Right’s Ability to Unite
Findlay’s resignation has accelerated reconciliation within the BC Conservatives. Five MLAs initially accepted invitations to return to caucus, including former leader John Rustad. Peter Milobar has since rejoined the party, adding momentum to efforts to consolidate the centre-right vote.
Milobar’s departure from CentreBC weakens its bid to establish itself as a credible alternative, removing a prominent figure with substantial legislative experience. In a press release, CentreBC expressed surprise at his decision and reaffirmed its intention to field candidates across the province. Its continued electoral ambitions could complicate Conservative efforts to unite opposition to the NDP.
Milobar and several other MLAs who left the Conservatives are expected to hold an announcement later today, which could clarify their election plans and the prospects for further reconciliation. CentreBC will not participate. Pressure from donors and other supporters seeking a united pro-enterprise alternative is likely to intensify, although CentreBC’s stated commitment to contest the election suggests that a fragmented opposition vote remains a significant possibility.
Who Will Lead the BC Conservatives?
The BC Conservatives are moving quickly to rebuild their campaign organization and reposition the party following Kerry-Lynne Findlay’s resignation. Peter Milobar and John Rustad have rejoined the party, while Katy Merrifield, former communications director to Pierre Poilievre, has been appointed campaign director. These developments bring experienced political figures back into the fold and strengthen the party’s capacity to mount a competitive campaign.
The party has also informed Findlay, Brent Chapman, and Sheldon Clare that they will not be permitted to run under the Conservative banner. Clare has since announced his intention to run for OneBC. Taken together, these decisions suggest a deliberate effort to move the Conservatives back toward the political centre after the party shifted sharply right under Findlay.
The immediate challenge is to translate these organizational and ideological changes into a cohesive electoral offering. Under interim leader Lorne Doerkson, the Conservatives will need to rebuild internal trust, reassure voters about the party’s stability, and shift attention toward the NDP’s record. A more centrist direction could broaden the party’s appeal, although competition from OneBC and CentreBC still leaves the risk of a fragmented opposition vote.
How Rural Health Care Shapes the NDP’s Electoral Prospects
Recovering rural seats lost in 2024 represents the NDP’s clearest path to a larger majority, making its ability to rebuild support in these communities a central test of the campaign.
Persistent emergency department closures and service interruptions create a significant obstacle in these communities. For affected residents, confidence in the health system is shaped by whether local services are available when needed. Commitments to future infrastructure have had limited immediate impact, while staffing shortages and unreliable access remain unresolved.
The NDP will need to demonstrate how its proposed investments translate into reliable access to care in local communities. Eby highlighted efforts to recruit physicians from the United States, arguing that a Conservative government would put that progress at risk. The Conservatives and CentreBC, meanwhile, have an opportunity to ground their criticism of the health system in the challenges patients face in their own communities.
For health sector organizations, this creates an opening to present practical recommendations on workforce capacity, service continuity, and access closer to home.
Next Steps for Clients
- Engage immediately through existing political relationships. The compressed campaign leaves a narrow window to meet with candidates and campaign contacts before priorities are finalized.
- Keep expectations for platform inclusion measured. Platforms rarely address specific health programs in detail; securing support for action after the election may offer greater value.
- Activate local members, providers, facilities, and community partners. Local voices are likely to receive priority, making constituency-level outreach particularly important.
- Equip representatives with a concise, consistent request tied to a tangible local concern. Engage across relevant parties; Santis can help prioritize constituencies, assess candidates, and develop outreach materials.
- Pursue public advocacy selectively, with a defined objective, credible spokesperson, and practical proposal for the next government. Patient experiences and local service pressures can attract attention, but visibility should translate into support for action.
- Assess applicable Elections BC advertising requirements before undertaking paid promotion, including whether proposed issue advertising falls within campaign-period rules.
- Review scheduled meetings, outstanding funding requests, and decisions requiring ministerial direction. Routine administrative work may continue, but significant policy and funding decisions could face delays.
- Prepare now for the next mandate by documenting progress, strengthening evidence, and planning early outreach. NDP re-election would offer greater continuity, although cabinet and staffing changes could require renewed engagement; a change in government would require a broader strategic reassessment.
Santis will monitor leadership developments, candidate nominations, polling, and campaign commitments, and advise clients on how these changes affect their priorities and engagement plans.